Economic Scan - Quebec: 2025
Demographics
Highlights
9.1 million people were living in Quebec in 2025, which was a 0.7% increase from 2024, but 4.5% since 2022.
The population of Quebec, with a median age of 42.8 years, is aging more than Canada as a whole (40.6 years).
- Quebec’s demographic weight was 21.7% in Canada, compared to 22.5% five years ago.
- Proportionately, Quebec had more people aged 65 and over (21.7% vs. 19.5%) than the Canadian average and a similar portion of young people under 20 years old (20.6%) in 2025.
- In 2035, one in four people (25.2%) will be 65 or older, representing an increase of 3.6 percentage points (pp) in 10 years, according to the fall 2025 reference scenario from the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
- The dependency ratio increased significantly since 2020, from 68.2% to 73.4% in 2025. This means that there are 73 people under 20 years old and 65 years of age or older per 100 people in the working-age population (aged 20 to 64) who are able to support them.
The number of employed immigrants in Quebec reached 1,157,400 in 2025, which is an increase of 7.9% compared to 2024. Among them, 251,900 are temporary, which is an increase of 30.0% compared to 2024. Conversely, employment fell by 0.2% for the non immigrant population. The immigrant share of employment was 24.9%, a share that was higher than their percentage in the population aged 15 and over (23.1%).
In 2025, Quebec's population continued to grow thanks to positive international net migration, despite announcements that admission criteria would be tightened to slow the influx of international students, immigrant workers and asylum claimants.
Temporary immigration even surpassed the peak in the previous year, with an average of 558,700 non-permanent residents in the region in 2025, which was an increase of 6.7% in one year. However, 60,100 permanent immigrants were also admitted to Quebec.
The decrease in temporary immigration accelerated throughout the year and was insufficient to offset deaths. Therefore, it led to a decline in Quebec’s population in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Nearly 47% of Quebecers (2021 census) reported having knowledge of both official languages. Just over 61% of those who are bilingual are concentrated in Montréal’s census metropolitan area (CMA).
Indigenous people account for 2.5% of Quebecers (2021 census), which is 50% less than the rest of Canada’s proportion (5.0%). Employment performance among Indigenous people has been very strong recently, jumping from 74,600 jobs in 2023 to 96,500 jobs in 2025, as this population is generally younger.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2025…
Employment rose by 1.7% and fluctuating every month
The employment rate remained stable at 61.3% (61.4% in 2024)
The unemployment rate went up slightly from 5.3% to 5.6%
The number of unemployed people rose sharply (+7.7%)
Unemployment rate
Show data table: Unemployment rate
| Year | Unemployment rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7.2 |
| 2017 | 6.1 |
| 2018 | 5.5 |
| 2019 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 8.,9 |
| 2021 | 6.1 |
| 2022 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 5.6 |
- In 2025, the labour market grew with an annual average of 4.6 million jobs. The economy added 78,800 jobs, even though employers curbed hiring due to the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy.
- The labour force increased by 98,500 people (+2.0%), which was mainly due to the population growth that only dropped in the second half of the year.
- There was less job creation compared to labour force growth, which brought the unemployment rate to 5.6% (+0.3( pp)) with a limited impact on young people aged 15 to 24 at 9.7% (+0.2( pp)) and the opposite for very recent immigrants at 10.0% (−1.3( pp)).
- The average number of vacancies dropped by 12.4% to 116,500 for all of 2025, which was the lowest level since 2019. This drop, the third in a row, combined with the increase in the number of people who were unemployed, which was also the third one, confirms that the labour market remained less tight and labour shortages were less prevalent.
Economic Conditions
Quebec’s economic drivers in 2025
Slow growth resulting from trade and geopolitical uncertainty
Limited job creation due to an aging population
Employment was mainly supported by the public sector
Lower interest rates and a slight increase in inflation in the second half of the year
Show data table: GDP Growth Rate
| GDP Growth Rate | |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.7% |
| 2024 | 1.7% |
| 2025 | 0.7% |
- In 2025, the economy slowed down with 0.7% growth compared to 1.7% the previous year but had the same rate as the technical recession in 2023.
- This performance was due in part to population growth, with the arrival of permanent immigrants, whereas there was a drop in temporary immigrants, who had increased the population and boosted the economy in Quebec particularly in the first half of the year.
- The Bank of Canada’s key interest rate continued to drop from 5% in April 2024 to 2.25% in October 2025, while inflation in Canada is now under control.
Main risks for Quebec’s economy in 2025
- An economic recession due to U.S. tariffs and Canadian and international countermeasures could disrupt supply chains.
- Rising inflationary pressure related to higher costs for businesses and consumers and higher oil prices caused by the war in Iran, which could potentially lead to an increase in interest rates.
- Ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty related to the American administration, results of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement renegotiation and ongoing global trade tensions.
- Simultaneous inflation and a recession would limit the Bank of Canada’s ability to use its available monetary tools effectively.
- A potential increase in vacancies with less immigration in the context of an ongoing need for skilled labour despite a slowdown.
Provincial issues
Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs on Canadian products, the risk of a global economic slowdown and a prolonged war in Iran will affect business decisions in 2026, thereby reducing investments and slowing down hiring.
The shrinking pool of available workers due to new immigration restrictions and limited population growth could exacerbate recruitment difficulties in the sectors with labour shortages in Quebec.
The governments’ objective of balancing their budgets will curb spending growth, slow down projects and limit recruitment in the public sector, despite high needs in health care and education.
Industry Trends
Show data table :Employment change by industry (NAICS) in 2025
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment change |
|---|---|
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing | 32.8k (12.3%) |
| Educational Services | 29.4k (8.3%) |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 19.9k (3.0%) |
| Wholesale | 10.6k (7.1%) |
| Retail | 6.6k (1.3%) |
| Durables | 5.3k (1.8%) |
| Public administration | 3.4k (1.1%) |
| Accommodation and food services | 3.2k (1.3%) |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | 2.6k (7.0%) |
| Utilities | 2.3k (7.5%) |
| Manufacturing | 1.8k (0.4%) |
| Agriculture | 0.3k (0.6%) |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 0.1k (0.0%) |
| Transportation and Warehousing | −2.8k (−1.2%) |
| Non-durables | −3.5k (−1.7%) |
| Construction | −6.8k (−2.0%) |
| Other services | −6.9k (−3.9%) |
| Information, culture and recreation | −8.8k (−4.5%) |
| Business, Building and Other Support Services | −9.1k (−5.4%) |
- Overall, employment was up in 2025, but there was virtually no growth in the production of goods (0.0%) in contrast to the services sector (2.2%).
- Despite tariff issues, manufacturing did not have a drop in employment during the year and avoided the worst.
- In services, the largest increases were observed in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, which added 32,800 jobs, and in educational services (+29,400).
- Significant job gains were also recorded in health care and social services (+19,900) and wholesale trade (+10,600) and retail trade (+6,600).
- However, the sectors that incurred the greatest losses include business, building and support services (−9,100) and information, culture and recreation (−8,800). In the latter sector, publishing (−10,200) and the motion picture and sound recording industry (−9,400) were particularly affected.
Career Prospects
- For the 2025-2027 period, the occupations with the best employment outlook are concentrated in the following broad occupational categories: health care; business, finance and administration; manufacturing and utilities.
- On the other hand, occupations with the most limited prospects are in the following sectors: trades, transport and equipment operators; sales and service; and natural and applied sciences.
Regional Economic Conditions
- In 2025, there were job losses in many regions of Quebec. The most significant declines in proportion to regional employment were in Bas-Saint-Laurent (−6.4%; −6,500 jobs) and Abitibi-Témiscamingue (−6.3%; −4,800 jobs).
- The main gains in proportion to regional employment were recorded in Mauricie (+5.7%; +7,600 jobs), Montréal (+4.8%; +52,400 jobs), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (+4.8%; +6,000 jobs) and Centre-du-Québec (+4.0%; +5,300 jobs).
- In contrast to the previous year when the Montréal CMA had lost 19,800 jobs, it did very well with 49,500 jobs created, an increase of 2.1%.
Show data table : Employment change in 2025
| Region | Employment change |
|---|---|
| QUEBEC AS A WHOLE | 1.7% (78.8k) |
| Mauricie | 5.7% (7.6k) |
| Montréal | 4.8% (52.4k) |
| Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean | 4.5% (6.0k) |
| Centre-du-Québec | 4.0% (5.3k) |
| Capitale-Nationale | 3.4% (14.3k) |
| Chaudière-Appalaches | 2.7% (6.6k) |
| Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine | 2.2% (0.8k) |
| Laval | 0.9% (2.2k) |
| Montérégie | 0.9% (7.5k) |
| Laurentides | −0.2% (−0.8k) |
| Estrie | −0.5% (−0.8k) |
| Côte-Nord & Nord-du-Québec | −1.3% (−0.7k) |
| Outaouais | −2.0% (−4.4k) |
| Lanaudière | −2.1% (−5.9k) |
| Abitibi-Témiscamingue | −6.3% (−4.8k) |
| Bas-Saint-Laurent | −6.4% (−6.5k) |
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